Pakistan’s intelligence services can either spy on Pakistani civilians dissenting with Musharraf or focus their energies on finding Osama bin Laden and his ever increasing deputies and operatives around Pakistan.

The Bush administration’s hopes that with its help there could be a transition to democracy in Pakistan with a continuing role for Musharraf have been dashed. The US might now start looking beyond Musharraf. Musharraf has risked US support for Pakistan and himself at risk because of his inability to grow beyond being a dictator who must have his way in everything.

Even if the Bush administration acts with restraint, US public opinion and Congress certainly will most likely react very strongly to Musharraf’s power grab. There are many members of Congress who are uneasy about supporting an unpopular military dictator whose record in fighting terror is, at best, mixed. Pakistan is being described by some in the US as “the most dangerous country.”

That characterisation can be contested by Pakistanis only if Pakistan moves along the path of certainty. A sudden suspension of the constitution, and images of mistreatment of judges and lawyers, adds to the doubts already being expressed about Pakistan’s future.

None of Musharraf’s justifications for his second coup sounds believable. For example, terrorism and suicide attacks have been increasing steadily for two years but it is only now that Musharraf claims he needs emergency powers to deal with them.

Musharraf has risked dividing an already polarised nation further. It may be too late for Musharraf to be able to act sufficiently harshly to frighten Pakistan’s civil society and political opposition into submission.

... contd.