Attention on the subject of climate change appears to wax and wane in this country, having reached a peak in 2007 when the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out providing strong evidence of human influence on the earth’s climate. The report also detailed the serious impacts of climate change that would occur worldwide if no action was taken to deal with this challenge. Recently, however, the media has focused on India’s position in the global negotiations towards an international agreement expected in Copenhagen in December 2009. As is generally the case with issues involving long-term implications, several mis-impressions and myths have been aired by some in positions of responsibility. While discussing issues related to climate change and India’s stand in international negotiations, it is important to recall some of the scientific findings of the AR4.

There is now “unequivocal” evidence of the human influence on the global climate and its impact which would become far more serious in the future. During the 20th century, the average temperature increase across the globe was 0.74°C and sea level rise 17 cm. But climate change is not occurring merely as a smooth, steady and linear increase in temperature. It is in essence a disruption of the entire climate system, resulting in increased frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves worldwide. There are also major changes in the water cycle, not only in the nature and magnitude of evaporation from land and water bodies across the globe but also in precipitation patterns. In general, at the upper latitudes in the northern hemisphere an increase in precipitation is observed while in some sub-tropical and tropical regions as well as the Mediterranean there is a decline. But there is also a global increase in extreme precipitation events, essentially with large quantities of rainfall or snow during short periods, creating problems of water availability. With hundreds of millions of farmers in developing countries dependent on rainfed agriculture, these changes in precipitation patterns spell increasing crises in several locations which not only have serious implications for food security but also social stability. Such effects and the overall disruption of climate are likely to increase if the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which creates human induced climate change, continues unchecked.

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