But the main thing that must be said about this election is that it takes place at a crucial juncture in the history of Goa. All the land of Goa is at stake, not just because of the interests of big real estate developers in Goa, or even bigger national real estate groups, but also from the international mafia. This election will bring a large number of new players into the market of land.

Irrespective of who comes to power, the movers and shakers of the land market will continue to rule. The citizens of Goa have little power to change the terms of this market since the drivers of the market are big finance and Goa has emerged on the international scene as an important investment destination in land. Going by the history of Mumbai, Shanghai, Singapore or California, the Goa that we know, where the time is always right for a siesta, is soon to be consigned to history. The regional plan 2011 was a portent. Democratic elections or no democratic elections, the political economy of land will even more strongly determine the nature of the politics of the future.

Having said that, at first glance, it seems the Congress has been able to put together the best political and social coalition. The political coalition with the NCP has brought it dividends — together, they won 19 seats in a house of 40. In terms of a social coalition, two trends appear to be emerging: one, a consolidation of the Hindu bahujan vote, which the BJP was attempting to convert into a Hindutva vote base. And two, a consolidation of the Christian vote base against powerful attempts to split it by leaders like Churchill Alemao and Babush Monseratte. This seems to be an assertion by the bahujans against the BJP which they see, because of its CM-designate, as being a brahmin-dominated party. So while the BJP may have closed ranks and even though it strategised to split the Congress, and did so, the BJP failed to produce a winning social group.

The voters have punished some important leaders and rewarded others. Luizinho Faleiro, in the running for chief minister, has lost. As has Francisco Sardinha who was the outgoing speaker. Surprisingly, Willie D’Souza, the leader of the NCP, also lost even though he has been able to get his party three seats through effective bargaining. The NCP party leadership is thus up for grabs. Churchill Alemao, who left the Congress and formed the Save Goa Party, and also Babush Monseratte who joined the UGDP — both of whom did so on the eve of the elections — won although their own bargaining power has been considerably reduced. Perhaps this should be seen as a pyrrhic victory for them and if the Congress has the courage to make them pay for their disloyalty it should, once and for all, bury the politics of sheer arrogance that these persons represent.

Ravi Naik has won and perhaps has the best chance of being chief minister, although Dayanand Narvenkar will also make a pitch since he is on the Cricket Board and thus may get the backing of Sharad Pawar and his three NCP MLAs. The MGP has got two seats and would be the natural ally of the Congress; together they could reach the magic figure of 21 seats to form the government.

Two independents have won. The son of the outgoing chief minister won as an independent, having contested against the official Congress candidate. The significant defeat of Mathany Saldanha, who made his reputation as a movement person leading the traditional fishermens’ struggle in the ‘70s, shows that the voters strongly disapproved of his co-habiting with the BJP and turning his back on the struggle. The defeat of Babush Monseratte’s wife in Santa Cruz also shows the limits of money power.

This is an interesting election. It suggests a shift of the social base. If we map the constituencies where the Congress has won, on an old party map of Goa, we would find that the Congress has won over a large section of the old MGP vote base. This political and social coalition bodes well for Goa. But will the Congress, with its chronically short memory, remember that?

The writer is senior fellow, CSDS, Delhi