Those familiar in the capital with American domestic politics question the tight linkage being drawn between a potentially big Democratic victory tonight and the fate of the Indo-US deal.

Irrespective of the poll’s outcome, the expectation here goes, the strong bipartisan support for improving ties with India might encourage the Republicans and Democrats to act together on the nuclear legislation in the lame duck session of the Congress (the outgoing one) that convenes next Monday.

India is fully aware of the intense work load on the final session of the Congress and the many time-consuming steps necessary for the passage of the Bill in the brief interval before the new legislature convenes next January.

These include a floor vote in the full Senate, a reconciliation of the Senate version of the Bill with the one already passed by the House in a conference committee, and a second vote in both Houses on the modified legislation.

Failure to approve the Bill in the lame duck session will mean it has to be taken back to the new Congressional Committees. Even if the outgoing Congress falters on the time line in the next few days, because of process-related issues, any progress achieved now should help consolidate the bipartisan support in favour of the nuclear deal and ensure its early passage in the new Congress that will take charge in January 2007.

Having waited for over three decades for the modification of the international nuclear regime in favour of India, New Delhi recognises that some things can’t really be rushed. India is also aware that China’s nuclear cooperation agreement with the US took nearly a decade and a half to get Congressional approval.

Sources here say India has no reason to be wary of a resurgent Democratic Party. Most pre-election polls say, Democrats are certain to gain control over the House of Representatives and have a good shot at winning the majority in the Senate as well.

Either outcome would mark a significant turn in the US domestic politics; while it could delay or complicate the implementation of the nuclear deal, there is no reason to believe that Democrats want to kill either the deal or the burgeoning political relationship with India.

The pre-election politicking had certainly prevented the nuclear legislation from being voted upon on the Senate floor last month. At that time, both the Republican and Democratic leaderships had assured India that the bill will indeed be taken up for a vote in the lame duck session of the current Congress.

From the very beginning, India recognised that getting strong support from the Democrats was critical from a longer term perspective on civilian nuclear cooperation with the United States.

India’s outreach to the Democrats paid off when a large section of the party voted for nuclear cooperation with India in the House International Relations Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee earlier this year. Nearly 80 per cent of the full House of Representatives voted for the legislation.

Although the Democrats tend to be more concerned about the non-proliferation agenda, their political leadership in the last few weeks has been sending consistent signals that the deal will not be in danger if they gain control of either or both Houses.

Two national opinion polls Monday showed Democrats held a double-digit advantage contradicting two surveys on Sunday that showed the Republicans closing the gap on Democrats. The Democrats hope that the unpopularity of President George W Bush, the anger at the failing war in Iraq, and the recent scandals involving Republican Congressmen, have “nationalised” the mid term elections that normally tend to be dominated by local politics.

The Republicans, in contrast, expect that the traditional advantages of incumbency in the U.S. Congress, and a structural majority in favour of the Republican Party in evidence since the early 1990s, might help fend off the Democratic challenge.