Contrary to conventional wisdom that the widely anticipated gains of the Democratic Party in today’s US Congressional elections would kill the Indo-US nuclear deal, informed betting here is that the odds are better than even in favour of the Senate considering the enabling legislation next week.

Those familiar in the capital with American domestic politics question the tight linkage being drawn between a potentially big Democratic victory tonight and the fate of the Indo-US deal.

Irrespective of the poll’s outcome, the expectation here goes, the strong bipartisan support for improving ties with India might encourage the Republicans and Democrats to act together on the nuclear legislation in the lame duck session of the Congress (the outgoing one) that convenes next Monday.

India is fully aware of the intense work load on the final session of the Congress and the many time-consuming steps necessary for the passage of the Bill in the brief interval before the new legislature convenes next January.

These include a floor vote in the full Senate, a reconciliation of the Senate version of the Bill with the one already passed by the House in a conference committee, and a second vote in both Houses on the modified legislation.

Failure to approve the Bill in the lame duck session will mean it has to be taken back to the new Congressional Committees. Even if the outgoing Congress falters on the time line in the next few days, because of process-related issues, any progress achieved now should help consolidate the bipartisan support in favour of the nuclear deal and ensure its early passage in the new Congress that will take charge in January 2007.

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