Second, states with a higher population growth since 1971 are likely to have the same in the next two decades too. The next delimitation will not take place till 2026. The census office has projected state-wise population trends for the next two decades. Using this data, the Rajasthan-Kerala divide widens to 75 per cent in 2026. Among states with population over a crore, Delhi (2.5 MPs per crore persons) is the lowest and Tamil Nadu (5.4) the highest: that is, a Delhi MP represents more than double the number of persons represented by a Tamil Nadu MP.

Third, higher population growth is correlated with less development, incomes and governance standards. Giving a lower representation to these states could arguably lead to a further deficit in governance.

Fourth, the balance of political influence is affected. If the constituencies had been drawn with equal representation, parties with support base in the heartland states (BSP, SP, RJD) would have gained clout at the expense of the southern parties (AIADMK, DMK, TDP); this will not happen now. The left parties should also be happy, as their three stronghold states would have lost 3 seats now, and 9 seats by 2026 if constituencies had been recast on the basis of equal representation. In the era of coalition governments, these changes could have significant implications on political power sharing.

The writer heads research at PRS Legislative Research, New Delhi madhavan@prsindia.org