Is there a shortage of land in India and are the next disputes going to be over water and land? And what can be done to tackle the “agricultural crisis”? The prime minister’s call for improving farmers’ real income and the Planning Commission’s Draft Approach Paper to the 11th Plan provide yet another context to look at these questions. There are, as happens in debates like these, quite a few misconceptions.

First, there’s no land shortage. India’s land area is 3.28 million sq km, the population is 1.08 billion and the population density is 328.59 people per sq km. Several countries have higher population densities and the list includes Singapore, Bangladesh, South Korea, Lebanon, Belgium and Japan. Although land use is a function of the level of development, per se, there is no shortage of land in India. Yes, China has three times India’s land area. However, only 13 per cent of China’s land is arable, the figure is 54 per cent for India. But 60 per cent of India’s land is not irrigated and is rain-fed. If we can irrigate more land and improve productivity, to even the levels of other developing countries, we shouldn’t have any problems feeding even double the present population.

Population projections for 2020 vary between 1.315 billion and 1.421 billion, with 1.315 billion probably closer to the mark. National food security doesn’t mean we have to produce everything we consume — that is, as long as we can pay for what we import (like pulses). The simple point is that there is no macro land issue in being unable to feed a population of even 1.5 billion.

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