Foreign policy can figure prominently in the political calculations of terrorist groups. For instance, train bombings in Madrid on March 11, 2004 were cleverly timed to influence the Spanish elections. The Socialist party won an upset victory in the elections three days later, and replaced the government of José María Aznar, and the new Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero kept his election promise of pulling 1,300 Spanish troops out of Iraq. Aznar had hoped that by blaming the Basque separatists, he would draw attention to his tough anti-terrorist stance at home, and away from his relations with George Bush. It backfired. The electorate did not like being politically manipulated by unproven charges being presented as facts.

Apparently Indian politicians don’t have to worry about such things, so they do not hold back on their speculation. Our wonderful democracy even allows our police officers to share their pet theories with the press. There are two such theories, substantially different, about the deadly terror attacks in Assam.

Responsibility for the attacks has been claimed by the Islamic Security Force - Indian Mujahideen. It was formed in 2000 in Bodo-dominated areas with the goal of “defending” Muslims of Bengali descent from Bodo militancy. Ethnic violence in Assam has involved these two ethnic groups in the past two months. That the targeted cities include Kokrajhar and Bongaigaon, and that the Gogoi government is politically allied with former Bodo militants provide context for the possibility of this group’s complicity. However, the ISF-IM does not have the capacity to carry out attacks that are unprecedented in scale, intensity and simultaneity. This explains the pet theory of a senior police official, G.M. Srivastava, currently Director General of the Home Guard. He says he is “certain” that the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) is behind the blasts. ULFA has strongly denied any involvement.

... contd.