Overcrowding” should not be necessarily linked to the spread of swine flu, said Additional Chief Secretary (Health) Sharvari Gokhale. “We would be hurting ourselves economically and our children would suffer in schools if we shut everything due to H1N1 virus,” Gokhale told The Indian Express.

A view that was also shared by the National Institute of Virology (NIV) experts, who also feel that “transmission of the virus is still going on in the community” and a herd immunity against the virus can only develop once 50 per cent of the population is infected.

A review meeting was held on Tuesday to analyse the 58 deaths that took place in August and September. “A total of 34 deaths took place before September 3 and 24 after the Ganesh festival,” Gokhale said, adding that even as there was a risk of transmission in crowded places, there are more people travelling in buses and trains. NIV director Dr A C Mishra, who was also present at the meeting, said crowded places were not the only factor for the spread of swine flu.

“The normal course of any influenza cycle is that the virus reaches its peak and then there is a sudden drop in the number of cases. Once 50 per cent of the population is infected then only can a herd immunity develop,” said Mishra who feels that the climatic conditions in Pune were favourable for transmission of the virus. “We just have to live with this virus,” said Mishra.

... contd.