But here’s the problem: even though those might be floating around, it might well be the case that they aren’t the main source of the discomfort. (Nobody’s panicking about Ram Vilas Paswan, are they? And seriously, he might have more of a chance at being PM.) And that isn’t all that’s wrong with the theory: the hopes that, at least in the metros, tend to be attached to an optimistic showing by Mayawati’s party aren’t really connected to delivering an Obama-style knockout to centuries-old deprivations, either.

Explaining the hope is easy. It’s actually desperation. To be closed out of the national conversation — or worse, the sense that a national conversation has been replaced by a national consensus, and one that doesn’t reflect your views — can lead people to detect alternatives where none exist, to proclaim messiahs where none are. There’s a common belief that the Congress and the BJP have converged on a common view on economic policy (which they haven’t), and that Mayawati, given that she represents a party that was set up to appeal to the marginalised, would change that. Besides, at least she doesn’t trust the US. (No reason, other than her opposition to the nuclear deal, is generally given for this one.) The truth is that the Bahujan Samaj Party doesn’t have, has never had, a policy programme — like Fight Club, the first rule of its programme is that There Is No Programme — and so, like a particularly vacuous film star, suitors and fans are free to ascribe to it motivations and character that it may not possess.

... contd.