May 14, 2008 will mark the 60th anniversary of the proclamation of Israel. After six decades, Israeli politics today is determined by Ehud Olmert’s predicament, the Gaza impasse, jeopardised peace negotiations with the Palestinians and the perceived threat from Iran. Hamas’s hold on Gaza and the Yeshiva attack in Jerusalem last month seem to have hardened public opinion at a time when the majority of Israelis do favour a Palestinian state. On a visit to Delhi recently, Professor Zaki Shalom of Ben-Gurion University, a historian who specialises in the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israeli foreign policy and defence, spoke to Sudeep Paul on these issues

•You have written that Israel would never be Iran’s primary target in a nuclear or conventional war. Why do you think so?

The Ahmadinejad regime is actually very calculating. Iran assumes (as does the world) that Israel is nuclear capable and would retaliate if hit. A direct confrontation with Israel would bring about its own destruction. Besides, Israel has one of the most advanced missile defence systems in place — almost a 99 per cent chance of destroying Iranian missiles over Arab territory. Then, the United States is unequivocally committed to retaliate on Israel’s behalf.

•Who would the Iranians strike, if they do so at all?

The Arabs. Iran wants to control the oil trade and the gulf. If Saddam could try it once, why wouldn’t the Persians, who have historically never been close friends of the Arabs? And the Arabs don’t trust Iran because this is precisely what they suspect.

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