Economic recovery weak in Nov: BluFin

Recovery in the economic growth is weak in November mainly due to a slowdown in consumer sectors and investor demand, a report has said.

The BluFin Business Cycle Indicator (BCI), that reflects various macroeconomic trends on a monthly basis, was marginally down at 160 in November against 160.3 recorded in October.

It flattened in November after a month-on-month increase for three straight months, the report said.

"The latest BCI data indicate a weak recovery from a bottomed-out business cycle. The weakness is primarily due to a slowdown in consumer sectors while production of basic and intermediate economic goods continues to improve," it said.

However, the implied year-on-year growth rate continues to be positive at 2.5 per cent, suggesting the Indian economy is growing as compared to the previous year.

"The shallowest recovery, certainly in the last six years. The consoling feature is that across the world, one is witnessing similar recoveries," BluFin Senior Advisor Surjit

Bhalla said.

"The good news just might be that this is a basing period, and that once the turnaround happens, it will be steadily sharp ... a full-fledged recovery in the business cycle is on the horizon," he added.

BluFin Vice-President (Research and Development) Debopam Chaudhuri said, "The lack of momentum in BCI's recovery path is primarily due to a slowdown in consumer and investor demand. Boosting the confidence of these economic players would be essential in ensuring sustained economic growth."

The latest BCI, which is designed to ascertain turns in the business cycle, takes into account five broad areas – capital markets, foreign trade, policy, real economy and

survey.

Going by November readings, there has been improvement in production of metals like copper, iron and aluminum. Also, the central Government's non-Plan expenditure moderated further as per the latest data.

Despite a slowdown in domestic consumption, foreign tourist revenues recorded a growth, however, domestic air traffic growth (both passengers and cargo) continued to be negative.

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