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Economy still fragile, handle with care: PM to G8

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    Manmohan Singh and Barack Obama at the G8 in L’Aquila on Thursday.
    As the G8 and G5 today broke the logjam on the Doha talks and agreed to refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has struck notes of caution in his conversations with world leaders here, telling them that the situation is “still fragile” despite evidence of some “green shoots of recovery” .

    Singh shared this assessment with leaders he met in the informal setting of the G8, adding that slackness in implementing recovery measures could spell bad news for developing economies.

    Singh also met Obama at a “pull-aside” meeting where they discussed ways to enhance bilateral ties and the July 20-21 visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    National Security Advisor M K Narayanan met his US counterpart Gen James Jones to discuss the PM’s bilateral visit to US later this year. This is expected to be a state visit, said sources.

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    An invitation has been pending from both sides and now, Washington is keen to have Singh to visit later this year so that an Obama visit can be slated next year.

    At a 45-minute meeting with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Singh told him that many of the major indicators are still negative and so the urgency must continue.

    In this context, he reminded Brown that many of steps agreed at the London G 20 Summit were still to be implemented.

    The Prime Minister went on to elaborate this at his meetings with other G5 leaders from Brazil, China, Mexico and South Africa.

    He said that any let-up in pushing through stimulus plans by other countries would have a more adverse effect on developing economies.

    Any delay, he told them, could lead to “stagflation” and developing countries were not as well-equipped as the developed countries to deal with the impact.

    According to Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, who is the PM’s Sherpa at these meetings, the PM was clear that the recovery needs to be “inclusive” and one which addresses the concerns of the poor so as to avoid a spectre of mass poverty due to rising unemployment.

    On the issue of reconsidering dollar as the single reserve currency, a proposal that China had been pushing, there appeared no consensus.

    In fact, China too backed off a bit saying that this was a “long-term proposal”.

    However, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva came up with an alternate suggestion that to begin with, the G5 countries could consider using their own currencies to settle trade accounts among themselves.

    It was agreed that this would be looked into by individual countries. Lula, incidentally, has been drawing a lot of attention for gifting every leader he meets with a T-shirt signed by all members of the Brazilian football team.

    He gave one to the PM too and this morning to US President Barack Obama .

    Meanwhile, as reported by The Indian Express today, the G8 and G5 today agreed to conclude the Doha Round of talks in a year’s time by 2010. “We together with the leaders of Australia, Indonesia and Republic of Korea in the presence of the Director General of the World Trade Organisation, are committed to seek an ambitious and balanced conclusion to the Doha Development Round in 2010, consistent with its mandate, building on the progress already made, including with regard to the modalities,” stated the declaration.

    On Climate Change, the Major Economies Forum did not agree on any specific targets but reached an understanding on not to allow global temperature to rise. “We recognize the scientific view that increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2 degrees Celsius.”

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