The development of an El Nino weather pattern is increasing and at this stage may be a medium-strength event, but it could take months for it to be officially declared, Australia's weather bureau said.

"We are warming reasonably rapidly. The models tend to suggest something reasonably warm," said Andrew Watkins from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, which issued its latest El Nino report on Wednesday.

"It doesn't look weak, but then again it doesn't look like it will be at the levels of the 1997/1998 event either," he said.

The last severe El Nino in 1998 killed over 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage to crops, infrastructure and mines in Australia and Asia. It struck in the middle of the Asian financial crisis which roiled financial markets.

India is already experiencing weaker annual monsoon rains. Its faltering sugar crop is a prime reason why sugar prices are at their highest levels in three years.

An El Nino is also a major risk to wheat production in Australia, palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, and rubber in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Output of palm oil and rubber has already fallen this year due to adverse weather.

"Conditions have reached a point that, should they persist at such levels through the remainder of the southern winter and into spring, 2009 will be considered an El Nino year," said the bureau's report titled "Strong indicators of El Nino persist".

The bureau said there was "very little chance of the current development stalling or reversing."

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