Not long ago, General Pervez Musharraf was quoted in newspaper reports as telling parliamentarians of the King’s Party (the PMLQ) that he would remain president for the next five years, come what may. Now with a presidential “election” looming, it is clear what he meant. Musharraf is depending on legal wizardry and shuffles in the army command to promote personally loyal officers, backed by an iron hand and a lot of bluster to keep him in power.

The arrest over the weekend of several major opposition figures reflects the iron hand. Legal wizardry is mirrored in the amendment to the rules by the Election Commission. The promotions and postings in the army’s senior ranks are ongoing. The claims by the minister for parliamentary affairs that Musharraf can be “elected” even if supported by only one assembly out of the five (plus the senate), which constitute the presidential electoral college, fall under the category of bluster. But the entire process is devoid of that most essential ingredient of contemporary governance: legitimacy.

Musharraf appears to have rejected the prospect of a negotiated settlement that would open up the political process in return for him retaining the presidency, but without absolute power. If there is no breakthrough in his talks with Benazir Bhutto and the PPP, the window for an orderly transition would narrow. The PPP would, in that case, join the other opposition parties in resigning from the assemblies. The emergence of a joint opposition would boost the morale of anti-Musharraf forces and expand the protests against one-man rule.

... contd.