September marked the end of a five-month incline in exports from May this year. Citing possible reductions in pharmaceutical and garment exports as the cause of the decrease, experts are hopeful that September’s $800,000 setback from August was just a minor glitch in a greater upward trend that will ultimately lead to positive growth and a strengthening of India’s trade backbone.

Exports garnered $13,608 million in revenue in September, a 13.8 per cent drop from last September’s $15,789 output. However, markets made their biggest drop-off between September and October 2008, so as the base of comparison continues to reduce, export experts such as Ajay Sahai are confident that India will re-enter positive growth within the next four to six months.

“The decline started from October of last year, so we will have a lower base,” said Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations. “From January onwards, we will have positive growth.” Sahai added that pharmaceutical and garment exporters may not have been as successful in September as they had been in the last year. The export of drugs, pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals for the year 2008-09 stood at Rs 39,538 crore (around $9.35 billion), registering a growth of about 29 per cent over the last year, according to a written statement issued by the department of commerce.