The Indian economy’s steady climb out of the doldrums of the 08-09 economic crisis continued in October as exports fell by 11.4 per cent, an improvement from September’s decline by 13.8 per cent growth rate and August’s 19.5 per cent fall.

Exports should resurface above zero in January after the Christmas and New Years retail seasons, said commerce and industry secretary Rahul Khullar.

Exports generated $12,518 million in revenue in October, compared to $13,608 million in September. Although the month-on-month picture has suddenly taken a turn for the worse since August, when exports brought in $14,489 million, there is great optimism that the year-to-year indicator is showing signs of life.

The difference between October exports in 2008 and 2009 is a mere $304,000 compared to September’s deficit of around $800,000 and $3,235 million in August.

Exports had taken a major hit globally during the economic recession which shattered world economies in the last quarter of 2008. One year later, experts are confident that the Indian economy can match those low numbers by January, then resume true economic growth in the last quarter of fiscal 2010, a sentiment which proves that the economic downturn is not yet history.

“Please don’t say the problem is over,” said Khullar while emphasising that any withdrawal of stimulus money would be premature. “Do not withdraw the stimulus. Just because we have seen some nascent recovery, it is not a sign to pull the stimulus.”

While the world’s developed economies continue to pine for signs of growth and progress, India and its greatest competitor, China are holding up the world economy. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, exports in China fell by 7.3 per cent, an improvement from negative 9.9 per cent in September and negative 15.4 per cent in August.

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