A day after the Met office scaled down its monsoon prediction to “below normal”, the Ministry of Agriculture advised states in central and southern India to monitor the progress of kharif sowing on a daily basis.

Despite an over 50 per cent rainfall deficiency so far, the ministry expressed hope of “good production” — not lower than last year’s record output — if the monsoon followed the IMD’s prediction for the rest of the rainy season, especially in July and August.

“Slight delay in rains in the central and southern parts of the country should not be viewed in any way as a year of drought,” Union Agriculture Secretary T Nanda Kumar said after a review meeting with nine states — Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and UP — on the status of rainfall and progress of sowing.

The kharif sowing window extends from mid-June to mid-July, so the ministry does see reason to panic till at least July 15. States were, however, told today to “update” their contingency plans to meet challenges that might arise.

The ministry is drawing hope from the fact that agriculture production last year remained almost at the record levels of 2007-08 despite a 17 per cent rainfall deficiency in July — a number that touched 33 per cent for the last week of that month last year.

“Since the prediction for July and August rainfall is more or less normal in the southern and central states, we may expect good production in the current year also,” Nanda Kumar said.

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