Despite an over 50 per cent rainfall deficiency so far, the ministry expressed hope of “good production” — not lower than last year’s record output — if the monsoon followed the IMD’s prediction for the rest of the rainy season, especially in July and August.

“Slight delay in rains in the central and southern parts of the country should not be viewed in any way as a year of drought,” Union Agriculture Secretary T Nanda Kumar said after a review meeting with nine states — Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and UP — on the status of rainfall and progress of sowing.

The kharif sowing window extends from mid-June to mid-July, so the ministry does see reason to panic till at least July 15. States were, however, told today to “update” their contingency plans to meet challenges that might arise.

The ministry is drawing hope from the fact that agriculture production last year remained almost at the record levels of 2007-08 despite a 17 per cent rainfall deficiency in July — a number that touched 33 per cent for the last week of that month last year.

“Since the prediction for July and August rainfall is more or less normal in the southern and central states, we may expect good production in the current year also,” Nanda Kumar said.

The IMD has predicted 99 per cent rainfall for the entire season for central India, and 93 per cent for the peninsular states.

The ministry hopes that the high percentage of land under irrigation — 80-90 per cent — in the north-western region (which includes granary states of Punjab and Haryana) will offset the impact of the poor monsoon. The Met office yesterday predicted 81 per cent rain for the region for the season.

Still, today’s meeting decided that state weather watch groups must meet often and issue regular advisories to farmers after discussing region-wise crop situations with agriculture universities. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) will start a helpline to provide technical support to state governments.

The agriculture secretary announced the ministry would help states through flexibile funding under the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana for seeds and other farm support. He said he hoped an additional Rs 1,200 crore available under the scheme this year would help.

The Centre has readied an extra five lakh tonnes of seeds to meet any unforeseen demand. As part of a broader “contingency strategy”, the ministry plans to use short-duration variety seeds and crop replacement in case the monsoon situation does not ease soon.

Agriculture Commissioner Dr N B Singh told The Indian Express: “There is no need of panic at all, if IMD’s prediction for the month of July and August holds good. There is two-pronged strategy to counter any further deviation from the predictions. First, the normal delays in the sowing of crops would be taken care of by use of short-duration varieties. However, if the delay in the monsoon goes beyond mid-July, we will have to go for replacement of crops.”

According to Singh, a delay beyond mid-July would necessitate replacing groundnut by pulses and sorghum by jowar.