The new US strategy has been widely interpreted in the United States, India and elsewhere, as a means of accelerating the American withdrawal from active conflict in Afghanistan. Obama’s own interviews with the media, during which he has spoken of an “exit strategy,” have reinforced this reading of his administration’s calculations. Yet three factors suggest that this analysis is widely off the mark.

Firstly, the white paper correctly recognises the necessity of a long-term American commitment to Afghanistan, evoking a more involved and long-term counterinsurgency strategy rather than a much more limited policy of preventive counterterrorism. The administration clearly realises that a strategy of preventing more acute or widespread violence in Afghanistan is useless without establishing a stable and legitimate government in Kabul, providing essential security services and the rule of law, developing the economy and giving the local population a greater stake in its success. Moreover, US policy towards this region will be dictated in large part by its homeland security imperatives. No US presidency can afford to risk another major terrorist attack on American soil on its watch. Finally, the downplaying of American objectives in Afghanistan by Obama and his national security advisors is quite likely meant to target a domestic political audience in the United States, particularly Obama’s fellow Democrats, many of whom are wary of greater involvement in Afghanistan.

Developing an approach towards Pakistan is proving far more problematic than forging a workable Afghan strategy. The Obama administration appears content with giving the Pakistani government and security services one last chance to improve their performance against militants along Pakistan’s northwest frontier. The United States also looks set to triple non-military aid to Pakistan in the hope that this would provide it greater leverage with the Pakistani leadership. In this regard, India should be legitimately concerned about whether American aid packages reach their intended targets. Recent audits conducted by the US government do not inspire much confidence.  There is also every likelihood that further domestic or regional instability could be utilised by the Pakistani leadership as an excuse for further inaction. Yet, American patience with the Pakistani security forces’ performance is evidently wearing thin. Obama has made it clear that “after years of mixed results, we will not provide a blank check [to Pakistan].”

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