Opinion Fall of a chopper

Military analysts say one of the main reasons for Moscow’s defeat was the US’s decision to supply Stinger,hand-held anti-aircraft missiles,to the mujahideen via the Pakistan army and the ISI in the mid-1980s.

After the Taliban brought down a US Chinook helicopter over the weekend in Wardak province,south-west of Kabul,killing 38 American and Afghan soldiers,many are wondering if the war has begun to turn decisively in favour of the Taliban.

For one,this is the single biggest loss of troops since the US came into Afghanistan at the end of 2001. For another,this psychological blow comes as the US begins to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan,and its military commanders try and do more with less.

The attack targeted the units of US Special Forces that were involved in the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden,and reinforced the Taliban’s claims that it can undertake high-profile revenge killing.

More than retribution,the Taliban attack was about countering the “night raids” by helicopter-borne US Special Forces that go after insurgent leadership gatherings in the remote villages of Afghanistan.

Finally,by bringing the Chinook helicopter down,the Taliban has signalled its determination to limit the freedom of US air operations in Afghanistan. Until now,the US troops have had unconstrained air mobility. Helicopters are the workhorses that ferry troops,equipment and supplies and deliver quick relief to troops in the battlefield. But these are also vulnerable to small arms fire,when landing or taking off. Rocket-propelled grenades have often brought down helicopters that are flying low. The height at which the Chinook was shot down is not known.

Without mobility in the air,the US troops will find it extremely difficult to operate in the large military theatres of vast Afghanistan. The big question then is,whether the downing of the Chinook helicopter is a one-off event or a decisive shift in the Afghan military dynamic.

Last Lucky Shot?

While some see the attack as a decisive turn towards the Taliban in the war,US military sources have played it down as a “last lucky shot”. Saturday’s crash will not compel the US Special Forces to cut back on their missions,a NATO spokesman insisted.

General John Allen,the US commander of all international forces in Afghanistan,said,“We will continue to relentlessly pressure the enemy.” US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said the incident would not “derail” US attacks on the Taliban and al-Qaeda. “We will send a strong message of American resolve,” Panetta declared. “From the tragedy we will draw inspiration to carry on the fight and continue to hunt down those who would do us harm.”

Whatever they might say in public,US military planners will undoubtedly assess whether the Taliban is acquiring significant quantities of anti-air weapons,and where they might be sourcing these from.

Rawalpindi’s Role

Some are pointing fingers at Iran and Pakistan as potential sources of anti-air weapons and training for the Taliban. Iran would certainly like to see the US humiliated and ousted from its eastern borders. Pakistan has big stakes in returning the Taliban to power in Kabul. But motivation is not necessarily evidence of involvement,which must await the US investigation into the incident.

Bruce Riedel,who advised President Barack Obama on Afghan strategy and is currently with the Brookings Institution in Washington,says,“Pakistan provides the Taliban with not only passive support in the provision of safe havens; it has also provided active support over the last decade with training,expertise and sanctuary for Taliban senior leaders.”

Riedel holds that the Pakistan army knows that providing Stinger-type weapons to the Taliban might needlessly provoke Washington. “Pakistan’s generals are convinced time is on their side in Afghanistan and that war weariness in America and Europe will deliver their Taliban clients victory sooner or later. They see no reason to take unnecessary risks,” says Riedel.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi