With the UPA government positioning itself to bring the US-India nuclear agreement to fruition, the ball will soon be back in Washington’s court. The timetable for completing the deal under George W. Bush’s presidency is ambitious, and India may still have to consider its completion under the next president, either Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama. Nuclear calculations apart, Indian analysts naturally wonder where US-India relations will head under the two leading presidential contenders.

Some, rather superficially, have emphasised Obama’s worldliness to suggest that he would be more favourable to India. He carries a Hanuman talisman and speaks a language that resonates well in India. He offered condolences for the death of Sam Manekshaw. Yet others fear Obama’s non-proliferation policies and populist rhetoric on economic issues may make a McCain presidency preferable.

It is important to keep in mind that many positions articulated by the two so far have catered to domestic constituencies. These may not reflect their policies as president. American politics, much like the Indian version, is prone to pandering. Both candidates are also likely to reach across party lines if elected. The bipartisanship and competition for the electoral centre mean that on many topics (including immigration, climate change and tax cuts) McCain and Obama have at times articulated similar policies, although they have naturally differed on details. As president, both are equally unlikely to enable greater high-skill immigration, are expected to prioritise a verifiable climate change agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, and will likely provide tax breaks for US consumers.

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