Farming out prosperity

Since early this year, there has been talk about India scaling up its expectations from the agriculture sector. In October, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh observed, “If we have to achieve our ambitions of growing at a rapid pace of over 8 per cent per annum, then we must aim at an agricultural growth rate of over 4 per cent per annum on a sustained basis.” This was, of course, not a casual statement. The number crunchers within the Government have been working on this for some time. An earlier document on the Eleventh Plan vision called for 2.7 per cent in the cropping sector, 5 per cent in horticulture, and 6 per cent in the livestock and fisheries sectors. Of the 2.7 per cent in the cropping sector, the aim was for 2.3 per cent in food grain, and 3 and 4 per cent in oilseeds and other crops respectively. All of these add up to the proposed 4.1 per cent target for the Eleventh Plan.

Three points emerge from this. First, this is an undoubtedly ambitious target, but it is achievable. There is much that needs to be done in a sector where productivity levels are extremely low, and small improvements can lead to great outcomes. In a joint work this writer did with Bibek Debroy for the FAO, a range of crops were identified, where Indian yields are far, far below those of China — a country with lesser-irrigated and poorer-quality arable land. The difference is that of practices and technology use. Therefore improvements are not just necessary, they are possible.

Second, the targets are quite low where improvements in the food grain sector are concerned, and perhaps what we need to do is to scale them up. The high yields in Punjab can be replicated in many other parts of India — Bengal, AP, UP, Bihar are only some of the states well-endowed with the right soil and water to produce much higher yields. What is more, the poorest farmer tends to be the one growing food grain. In other words, if the objective is growth plus equity, then the emphasis within the agri sector should be on food grain. And here again the possibilities are enormous.

Third, it is well known now that sustained agri growth will come about not through a few improvements but a whole package: credit availability, technology improvements, changes in practices, marketing improvements, changes in the various laws limiting trade and greater rural infrastructure investment. Most important, there is little argument on this; and politicians across the spectrum acknowledge the importance of ensuring greater farmer access to credit, inputs, technology and markets. In other words, the country is finally ready for a second green revolution.

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