Since early this year, there has been talk about India scaling up its expectations from the agriculture sector. In October, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh observed, “If we have to achieve our ambitions of growing at a rapid pace of over 8 per cent per annum, then we must aim at an agricultural growth rate of over 4 per cent per annum on a sustained basis.” This was, of course, not a casual statement. The number crunchers within the government have been working on this for some time. An earlier document on the Eleventh Plan vision called for 2.7 per cent in the cropping sector, 5 per cent in horticulture, and 6 per cent in the livestock and fisheries sectors. Of the 2.7 per cent in the cropping sector, the aim was for 2.3 per cent in food grain, and 3 and 4 per cent in oilseeds and other crops respectively. All of these add up to the proposed 4.1 per cent target for the Eleventh Plan.

Three points emerge from this. First, this is an undoubtedly ambitious target, but it is achievable. There is much that needs to be done in a sector where productivity levels are extremely low, and small improvements can lead to great outcomes. In a joint work this writer did with Bibek Debroy for the FAO, a range of crops were identified, where Indian yields are far, far below those of China — a country with lesser-irrigated and poorer-quality arable land. The difference is that of practices and technology use. Therefore improvements are not just necessary, they are possible.

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