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Fazed by the future?

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  • K. Subrahmanyam

    What the Lok Sabha is going to vote on tomorrow is not just the nuclear deal but alternative world views on which Indian foreign and development policies are to be based. Manmohan Singh and those who support him perceive the world as a post-Cold War balance of power and a globalised system in which India is seen as a non-threatening, emergent power contributing to international stability, prosperity and peace. The other world view is a lingering Cold War perspective of the United States still dominating the world as the sole and the international system as a Hobbesian one in which the US and Western powers are out to hamper India’s growth and power.

    The latter school will no doubt highlight the lessons of history of the last 60 years. But humanity has always advanced only when the mould of history was broken as when slavery and racism ended, colonialism was overthrown and when gender equality is being increasingly asserted. While not forgetting the lessons of history one should not fail to take note of emerging compulsive trends.

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    Manmohan Singh’s world view is not one of total global goodwill. It is a highly nuanced one in which major powers will continue to compete with each other to maximise their own individual interests. Instead of the simple bipolar alignment that characterised the Cold War there will be alignments and realignments based on issues. There are no longer security concerns among major nations stemming from ideological rivalries.

    The G8 in the recent summit endorsed India being brought into the international non-proliferation regime — not into the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since that is not possible — through the waiver by the Nuclear Suppliers Group rules. It should be recalled that the NSG, originally called London Suppliers Club, was founded by the US, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, Germany and Canada as a response to the Indian Pokharan test in 1974. All of them now present in the G8 are endorsing India’s incorporation in the global non-proliferation regime by waiving the NSG guidelines.

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