Fencing with rumours

In a normal country, top leaders rarely disappear without an explanation. The answer is simple. With the scrutiny from political opponents and a vigilant press, mysteriously vanishing from public view is not just technically difficult but also self-destructive. Voters simply would not want to be governed by leaders who evaporate at will.

There is another explanation for political transparency in a normal country. The ruling elites enjoy a much higher sense of security. Since all normal countries pick their leaders through competitive elections at regular intervals, elected leaders, barring serious misdeeds, cannot be removed from office. Such political security makes secrecy unnecessary and counterproductive.

But the luxury of political security is not something available to rulers in less normal countries — those run by autocrats. Despite their apparent monopoly of power, self-appointed rulers in all societies live in perpetual fear of losing office. Their fall from grace, just like their rise to the top, depends not on established and respected rules, but on backroom bargains among oligarchs that can change on a dime. Even the most senior officials in such regimes can be cashiered.

This insight helps us understand the current curiosity surrounding the mysterious disappearance of Xi Jinping, China's heir apparent, from public view in recent days. After making an important speech in Beijing on September 1, Xi abruptly cancelled meetings with visiting foreign dignitaries, such as US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, without providing any explanation. After more than a week of unexplained absence from public view, Xi's whereabouts have become a hot news item around the world, as well as the centre of speculation and rumour-mongering.

Although he was quoted in the state media a few days ago and the latest reports say he will make a public appearance on Sunday, guesses about what has happened to Xi run from sensationalism to informed speculation. In all likelihood, Xi is indeed suffering from some unnamed physical ailment that requires medical attention. The possibility that he has been the victim of another power struggle at the top is almost nil.

... contd.

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