As we watch in amazement, the various electoral competitors change their attire, sides and tactics every moment. As far as the new, fresh-from-the-mint Muslim parties go, their number is slowly increasing and their demeanour is getting more vociferous and belligerent. These new formations — the Azamgarh-based Ulema Council, the Parcham Party of India, Muslim Majlis and the Peace Party are the new political entrants in Uttar Pradesh — are responding to the way the polity has changed since 2004.

In those elections the 2002 Gujarat riots were still central in the minds of most Muslims. Since then, however, the last five years of UPA rule have made Muslims feel less belligerent towards the BJP. Given that the BJP-led NDA does not evoke the same animosity as earlier, these new suitors of the community are emboldened to throw their hat in the ring. After all, even a 2 per cent vote overall will affect the outcome; the sum of the whole is to be determined by the minuscule.

But what effect will they really have? They are certainly likely to slice into the vote share of the state’s four major parties, even though they will have at best a marginal impact on the poll result and are not expected to win any seats. “They need the support of other communities,” as All-India Muslim Personal Law Board member Maulana Khalid Rashid Firangi Mahal has said.

Political analysts, thus, remain sceptical, seeing them mainly as pressure groups. Two such parties, the All-India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimmen in Andhra Pradesh and the Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala, have not been able to expand out of their home states, and are limited to a maximum of two seats. Of the other likely areas for such politics, Bihar, mired in caste and religion, takes a back seat, and thus no Muslim fronts have emerged. In the southern states, where Muslims are comparatively better off, voting is along national trends.

... contd.