With the overall monsoon turning out to be in excess of the average, economists may breathe easy but the Met department is doing a re-think. Its model failed in predicting this excess once again: In the two forecasts issued by the Met department, it had predicted below-normal rains.

For the country as a whole, the seasonal rainfall from June 1 to September 30 was 105% of its long period average (LPA). LPA is the average monsoon rainfall from 1941 to 1990.

It arrived five days too early over the Kerala coast and left 15 days later from Rajasthan. By the time it made its delayed exit, South Peninsula was excess by 26% whereas North West was deficient by 15%, showing its uneven distribution.

Five subdivisions (West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh) experienced moderate drought conditions (rainfall deficiency of 26% to 50%) at the end of the season.

In both Central India and North-East India, it was marginally above the LPA.

In its end of the season report, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) admits that it was only the North-West and the North-East forecast that they managed to get right. The IMD, in its preliminary forecast in April, said that nationwide, rainfall this monsoon will be 5% less than the average. This had come as a surprise to those watching predictions put out by major international agencies which had indicated a “high probability” of above average rain, specifically over the western coast of India.

... contd.