The final verdict will be out only in February but India appears all set to go ahead with the construction of the 450 MW Baglihar dam on the Chenab in Jammu and Kashmir’s Doda district after carrying out minor design modifications. New Delhi has also been able to successfully counter Islamabad’s opposition to the positioning of the dam sluice gates.

Both on technical grounds and the interpretation of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, India has been able to put its point of view across to neutral arbitrator Raymond Lafitte. Going by the last meeting in Washington in November, it is unlikely that the final decision will be very different from Lafitte’s July draft decision in Paris.

Lafitte has suggested two modifications: Decrease the height of the dam by 1.5 metres and raise the water inlet point for the turbines. According to technical experts, these amount to “cosmetic change” in the dam construction. In fact, India had proposed reduction in height in the bilateral discussions on since 1999 when the dam was first proposed. But Pakistan had turned it down then. Islamabad had appealed to the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert after talks between the two sides failed to resolve the issue.

According to technical experts, raising of the inlet point does not translate into any extra cost or major overhaul in design. More so, as the first phase of construction, stalled since 2004 has not reached the inlet point. In return, India may get to keep the sluice gates that it wants. Sluice gates are state-of-the-art technology for hydroelectric dams, placed usually at the bottom of the reservoir to control both flood and silt.

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