Having made a solid case against Pakistan, India must quickly face up to two important realities. The first is that Pakistan’s civilian government led by Asif Ali Zardari is not a free agent capable responding to India’s demands. Zardari reminds the world of his unenviable political condition when he pleads for a United Nations probe into the murder of his wife and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. If he can’t order a credible national investigation into Bhutto’s assassination, how can we expect him to pursue those responsible for the Mumbai terror? The utter confusion in Islamabad’s response to India’s charges is a clear enough testimony to the political irrelevance of Pakistan’s civilian leadership. The army, in theory, could deliver on New Delhi’s demands; but it has no real incentive to act against a monster that it has so deliberately nurtured over the decades.

Compelling adversaries, especially a nuclear-armed one, to act in a prescribed manner is never easy. After Mumbai, however, failure is not an option for New Delhi. It can’t even settle for a draw or a delayed decision. The Congress leadership needs visible success, and on short order, to preserve its domestic political credibility.

Having a great dossier on Mumbai, therefore, is not good enough for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. To force the Pakistani leadership to act purposefully against anti-India terror groups, India must necessarily raise the threat of military/nuclear escalation and leverage, in its own favour, the inevitable diplomatic intervention of the great powers, especially the United States.

... contd.