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This is an archive article published on October 13, 2011
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Opinion Forging shining paths

Myanmar and Vietnam will bolster India’s economic and strategic role

Harsh V. Pant

Harsh V. Pant

October 13, 2011 03:24 AM IST First published on: Oct 13, 2011 at 03:24 AM IST

India is hosting the leaders of Myanmar and Vietnam this week,underscoring once again the seriousness with which it is pursuing its “Look East” policy,as it forges close economic and security ties with two significant nations in Southeast Asia and counters China’s penetration of its own neighbourhood. The Look East policy,initiated by

P.V. Narasimha Rao,is now the cornerstone of India’s engagement with the world’s most economically dynamic region. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it clear that his government’s foreign-policy priority will be East and Southeast Asia,poised for sustained growth in the 21st century.

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India’s Look East Policy was explicitly designed to initiate New Delhi’s re-engagement with East Asia after years of neglect. Over the years,India has come to have extensive economic and trade linkages with the region even as there has also been a gradual strengthening of security ties.

This is a time of great turmoil in the Asian strategic landscape and India is trying to make itself relevant. With its political and economic rise,Beijing has started dictating the boundaries of acceptable behaviour to its neighbours. Tensions are rising between China and smaller states in East and Southeast Asia over territorial issues. The US and its allies are already re-assessing their strategies and a loose anti-China balancing coalition is emerging.

Myanmar’s President Thein Sein will be in India from October 12. India’s strategic interests have been winning out in its relations with Myanmar in recent years. Myanmar’s reclusive military leader,General Than Shwe,was in India last year. But Delhi is now watching closely as the new civilian government moves ahead with democratic reforms. The US president,while endorsing India’s candidacy for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council,had said he expected Delhi to speak up on human rights abuses in Myanmar. Previously a harsh critic of the junta,since the mid-1990s,India has muted its criticism and dropped its vocal support for Aung San Suu Kyi. More important to Delhi has been China’s rapidly growing profile in Myanmar. As India realised that Myanmar — one of its closest neighbours and a major source of natural gas — was increasingly in China’s orbit,it reversed its decades-old policy and began dealing directly with the junta.

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India has found it difficult to toe the Western line on Myanmar. It is stuck between its role as the world’s largest democracy and the imperatives of its strategic interests. Indian elites have long admired the struggle led by Suu Kyi. Even today,India’s official policy is the eventual restoration of democracy in Myanmar. But its strategic interests have become significant in recent years,especially as China’s trade,energy and defence ties with Myanmar have surged.

Strategic interests have led Delhi to only gently nudge the junta on democracy. India has gained a sense of trust at the highest echelons of Myanmar’s ruling elite and it would be loath to lose this. As such,India remains opposed to Western sanctions. Suu Kyi has indicated she would be talking to the junta to find the best alternative for her nation and that should give India a larger strategic space to manoeuvre.

India is also hosting Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang. Delhi-Hanoi ties have raised a lot of eyebrows,after India snubbed China and made it clear ONGC Videsh Ltd will continue to explore oil and natural gas in two Vietnamese blocks in the South China Sea. India has an interest in protecting the sea lanes of communication that cross the South China Sea to Northeast Asia and the US. As India’s profile rises in East and Southeast Asia,it is asserting its legitimate interests in the East Asian waters. As China expands its presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region,India is staking its own claims in East Asia. India has now decided to work with Vietnam to establish a regular Indian presence in the region as part of a larger security partnership. Delhi and Hanoi have significant stakes in ensuring sea-lane security and preventing piracy,while sharing concerns about Chinese access to the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Indian strategic interests demand that Vietnam emerge as a major regional player,and India is well-placed to help Hanoi achieve that. It has been argued that just as China has used states in India’s periphery to contain India,Delhi should build states like Vietnam as strategic pressure points against China. A common approach on the emerging balance of power is surfacing with India and Vietnam both keen on reorienting their ties with the US as their concerns about China rise.

Indeed,India is pursuing an ambitious policy in East and Southeast Asia — joining forces with smaller states in the region to offset China’s growing dominance and America’s likely retrenchment from the region. It remains to be seen,however,if India can live up to its full potential in the region.

The writer teaches at King’s College,London,express@expressindia.com