Opinion Friends with benefits

While optimists can still argue that the warmth between Afghanistan and Pakistan will not be at India’s cost,it remains a fact that in recent months Karzai has tried to sideline the Northern Alliance (NA) — a group that not only remains opposed to any form of peace with the Taliban,but is also known for its pro-India outlook. Karzai’s dismissal of Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and National Security Chief Amrullah Saleh,both belonging to the NA,citing security lapses leading to an attack on the recent peace Jirga,is being interpreted as a move to remove internal hurdles to the reconciliation plan. These developments have emerged as a major dilemma for India,diluting the goodwill generated by its $1.3 billion investment in Afghanistan. The danger of Afghanistan slipping into the hold of its western neighbour appears imminent,as the US looks committed to decreasing its presence.

Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao minced no words prior to the two-day India-Iran joint commission meeting: “We need to move beyond mere articulation of positions as the Afghan conundrum deepens and could have a deleterious impact on our two countries and the region in case the forces of extremism and obscurantism are made arbiters of the fate of the Afghan people.” She maintained that neither India nor Iran “wish to see the prospect of fundamentalist and extremist groups once again suppressing the aspirations of the Afghan people and forcing Afghanistan back to being a training ground and sanctuary for terrorist groups.”

Iran remains an influential regional power with whom India has common ground,when it comes to Afghanistan. The Taliban remains anathema for Tehran,as for India — its extremist theology and its killing of Afghan Shia Muslims have angered Iran. In 1999,Iran almost went to war against the Taliban after its militia killed eight Iranian diplomats and a journalist. In the mid-’90s,concern over the Taliban and the rising influence of Pakistan in Afghanistan had brought India and Iran together in supporting the Northern Alliance along with Russia. However,bilateral relations between India and Tehran have soured in recent years as a result of growing Indo-US ties.

In the changing times,does Tehran need India as much as India needs Tehran? Yes,to the extent that India helps it come out of its pariah status. Despite its contributions during the Bonn process,the Bush administration has been sceptical of Iranian involvement in Afghan affairs. US officials,including the former US and NATO commander General Stanley McChrystal,have accused Iran of arming sections of the Taliban and having taught them the art of roadside bombings. Such perceptions have persisted under the Obama administration,even though a section within it appears to believe that Washington and Iran could cooperate over stabilising Afghanistan. While Iran can be India’s ally in Afghanistan,India’s support for Iran can help it break free from a regime of sanctions and embargoes. India wants Iran to complete the formalities that would let India finish building the Chahbahar port in the Sunni-dominated Balochistan. This project along with the completed Zaranj-Delaram highway has the potential of opening up the Indian market to Afghan exports,bypassing Pakistan. It will also open up India’s access to the Central Asian economies.

India’s policy of putting all its eggs in one basket as far as Afghanistan is concerned has paid it little dividends. American dependence on Pakistan to provide a solution to the Afghanistan problem has persisted and deepened over the years,in spite of all the evidence detailing linkages

between the Taliban and the Pakistani army and ISI. And as the US prepares to scale down its military presence,Pakistan is emerging as the sole power broker in Kabul.

The renewal of Indo-Iran ties will certainly not be music to American ears. However,it might propel Washington to rethink its Af-Pak policy and move forward on Obama’s initial promise of using diplomacy to engage Iran. And for India,with its global leadership aspirations,this could be the beginning of formulating a regional strategy of its own. Coming a few months ahead of Obama’s India tour,the move could not have been better timed.

The writer is a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies,National University of Singapore

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