War or no war

South Asia faces a real threat of war, if India were to pay heed to the popular mood at home and mount an offensive against terrorist camps located in Pakistan. No evidence is required today that the Pakistan army is an independent authority unto itself. Pakistan’s elected government can only wring its hands if their army decides to do anything. One also needs to take into account the quadrangular and symbiotic relationship between Al Qaeda, the Pakistan army, ISI and Lashkar-e-Toiba.

Pakistan’s perilous economic condition is perhaps the biggest risk factor for a war after all. India’s western neighbour has been tottered on bankruptcy for many years, its economy kept on life support by timely loan injections from the US and other international organisations. Pakistan’s foreign reserves have reduced to a mere $3 billion today — the country will simply collapse in the event of a war. While India has a forex reserve of 250 billion dollars. In my view, despite domestic pressure, India should avoid war and consider other other stringent measures.

Even a mighty superpower like the US faces an unprecedentedly gargantuan task in restoring stability in Pakistan. The three perils of nuclear arms, rogue jehadi armies and Taliban, and a self-destructive economy have come together in a deadly mix for Pakistan, and it is not for nothing that the country has earned the moniker of ‘international migraine’.

Friends in America

India can look forward to having no dearth of support in the Barack Obama administration, right from Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, who not only has a deep understanding of India, but equally close ties with several prominent Indians.

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