South Asia faces a real threat of war, if India were to pay heed to the popular mood at home and mount an offensive against terrorist camps located in Pakistan. No evidence is required today that the Pakistan army is an independent authority unto itself. Pakistan’s elected government can only wring its hands if their army decides to do anything. One also needs to take into account the quadrangular and symbiotic relationship between Al Qaeda, the Pakistan army, ISI and Lashkar-e-Toiba.

Pakistan’s perilous economic condition is perhaps the biggest risk factor for a war after all. India’s western neighbour has been tottered on bankruptcy for many years, its economy kept on life support by timely loan injections from the US and other international organisations. Pakistan’s foreign reserves have reduced to a mere $3 billion today — the country will simply collapse in the event of a war. While India has a forex reserve of 250 billion dollars. In my view, despite domestic pressure, India should avoid war and consider other other stringent measures.

Even a mighty superpower like the US faces an unprecedentedly gargantuan task in restoring stability in Pakistan. The three perils of nuclear arms, rogue jehadi armies and Taliban, and a self-destructive economy have come together in a deadly mix for Pakistan, and it is not for nothing that the country has earned the moniker of ‘international migraine’.

Friends in America

India can look forward to having no dearth of support in the Barack Obama administration, right from Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, who not only has a deep understanding of India, but equally close ties with several prominent Indians.

The US Treasury secretary-nominee Timothy Geithner has lived in India for many years and has also ran a Centre on Indian affairs in the University of Pennsylvania. Geithner is considered an expert on India and China. Even the head of Obama’s national economic council, Lawrence Summers, is one of India’s staunch supporters. A former treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, Summers has a number of friends in India and is a frequent visitor. Others in the House like Congressman Joseph Crowley from New York and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are considered close to India, among others. India can easily dub the Obama’s cabinet a friendly government and now it is up to our diplomats to strengthen existing ties and forge a stronger relationship between the two democracies.

Pappu’s verdict

The recently-concluded assembly elections for six states in India have thrown up several pleasant surprises. In a first since many years, voters in five states whose results have been announced have given a decisive verdict in favour of a single political party. This has ruled out any possibility of a coalition government, which would have been the most likely outcome in case of a fractured verdict and would have essentially meant a government of compromises for the citizens. In Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh, the voters have clearly picked a party and brought it to power with simple majority. Even in Rajasthan, the decision is clearly in favour of Congress and the party will easily establish majority in the House with support from few independent MLAs. In all, this has been a no-compromise election by the voters.

The Election Commission too has scored a major victory in getting a record voter turnout averaging at 65 per cent. The average turnout used to hover around 40-45 per cent in earlier elections, which would allow caste and creed factors to often play a decisive role in electing governments. Clearly, the massive publicity campaign run by the commission exhorting ‘Pappu’ to vote has paid rich dividends. These elections have been more inclusive than ever and the newly-elected governments can lay a much better claim of representing their people.

The biggest surprise of all has been the staggeringly high voter turnout in Kashmir. Despite terrorists’ warnings of violent retribution for those found with an ink stain on their fingers, the voter turnout averaged 73 per cent in some of the worst terrorist-infested constituencies. This is clearly a slap in the face of all those forces who claim that the Indian state suppresses the Kashmiri people’s voice.

The writer is a Congress MP