The strategic growth of the Indian economy and the country’s recent attempts to develop closer ties with the US are viewed with deep suspicion by China. The Chinese fear that growing US ties with India and the nuclear deal will bring about a shift in the balance of power in South and South East Asia which would be against China’s strategic interests.

We should expect China to up the ante after the Olympic games in August 2008. This could lead to some border skirmishes. Whether this starts in the autumn of 2008 or after the next general elections will depend on the Chinese calculus as to who or which parties are likely to form the next government. The attempt will be more flagrant if India’s political centre is perceived as weak and pusillanimous.

Although the probability of an all-out border war is low, a series of border skirmishes is a distinct possibility. One could ask why China should resort to a conflict. After all, its economy is doing fabulously and it could build its strength further without any distractions. Should it, however, resort to provoking a border conflict and if — it is a big if — it comes out successful, what does it gain? The answer is that in the perceived struggle for rivalry in South and South East Asia, the Indian image can be badly tarnished.

A limited intrusion is possible by both sides, which may remain undetected for a short period, due to the extremely rugged terrain. Such intrusions would have to be vacated thereafter physically. So, the first consideration for the Chinese will be, can they get away with it? I think not. The Indian Armed Forces are no push-over. The second consideration is the image of China, which they have tried to assiduously build, of being a responsible and sober power. Third, there will be larger international repercussions with adverse diplomatic fallout.

... contd.