Good news: Two crucial monsoon indicators moving in positive direction

The first long-range forecast for the rainfall during the four-month period of July-September,released by the Indian Meteorological Department,is expected around the end of this month.

A recent advisory issued by the Climate Prediction Centre of the US shows a definite weakening of El Nino conditions in the next couple of months. By July-end,the El Nino is likely to be in neutral condition. A positive El Nino generally does not augur well for the monsoon.

Similarly,the Indian Ocean Dipole,which again is the result of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean,is already in the positive zone and is seen to continue like this till the end of August.

“At this moment,what can be said quite safely that we are not headed for a disaster for the second successive year. The indicators are not unfavourable,at least. The current trends of El Nino or Indian Ocean Dipole does not seem to be spoiling a good monsoon,” said a weather scientist.

Additionally,there have been only three occasions in the last 110 years when there have been two consecutive years of deficient rainfall,at least 10 per cent below normal. These have happened in 1904-05,1965-66 and 1986-87. Last year,the cumulative rainfall during the four-month monsoon season was 23 per cent below normal,enough to be declared a drought year.

A good monsoon this year is extremely important for the government which is fighting hard to contain the dramatic rise of food prices. The winter,or rabi,crop has been good and normal monsoon rainfall can ensure a good kharif season as well that can go a long way in easing the food prices.