Great Game in new phase,India needs new plan

The US retrenchment from Afghanistan merely changes the contours of the game.

President Barack Obamas decision to start pulling out troops from Afghanistan is widely seen as the beginning of the end game for the United States,but for India,there is no end to the Great Game in the turbulent lands between the Indus and the Hindu Kush. The US retrenchment from Afghanistan merely changes the contours of the game.

As the security establishment here pores over Obamas new regional strategy,the Presidents tough message to Pakistan on safe havens to terrorists and the indirect reference to establishing bases in Afghanistan from which the Americans would like to target terror groups,has got some attention.

On the long-term engagement with Kabul,he declared that the US wants to build a partnership with Afghanistan that endures one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Afghan government.

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Obamas assertions provide the flip side to the widespread perception that a weakened US is simply retreating from the Afghan arena. While the US will indeed stop fighting in Afghanistan by 2014,it wants to retain the ability to target terror hideouts in Pakistan.

The effect of the new approach will have a great bearing on Indias security in the coming years. Yet,unlike the Indian consternation at Obamas announcement in December 2009 that he would draw down in Afghanistan from July 2011,there is a measure of calm this time around.

In 2009,the dominant sentiment in India was that US forces must stay until the Taliban were defeated. Since then,there is a clear recognition that the American people are tired of the war.

For India,the real question is what happens between now and 2014,when the US plans to complete the handover of security and governance responsibilities to the Afghanistan.

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Obama has identified the agenda: reconciling with the Taliban,creating a credible and sustainable Afghan armed forces,and eliminating terror sanctuaries in Pakistan that destabilise Afghanistan. Not everyone in India,the region and the US share Obamas confidence that these are achievable. Many critics have argued that reducing the US military footprint in Afghanistan might make all three goals more difficult.

Obamas plans for an unconditional withdrawal from Afghanistan leave little incentive either for the Taliban to reconcile or for Pakistan to shut down terror sanctuaries.

Meanwhile,internal political fissures in Afghanistan are likely to deepen as a result of either a reconciliation with the Taliban or its predicted return to control the southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan after the withdrawal.

Defenders of Obamas new approach,however,say the real problem is not about the stability of Afghanistan. It is Pakistan with its terror sanctuaries that has become the main obstacle.

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Talk of long-term American bases in Afghanistan to cope with this has set off alarm bells in Beijing,Moscow and Tehran.

India will need a sophisticated policy to deal with the shifting great power alignments among the US,China and Russia,manage the regional contradictions,cope with greater internal turbulence in Pakistan and Afghanistan,and engage all the major ethnic groups across the Indus.