If numbers are to be believed,the incidence of deadly H1N1 virus in India seems to be dropping. Health Ministry statistics have lately shown a marked fall in the number of swine flu deaths and infections in India. India reported only 12 cases of H1N1 virus on March 20 (maximum from Maharashtra) without any death. No death was reported on March 21. On March 22,only 15 new cases were recorded and March 23 saw 16 cases from Maharashtra without any death. According to experts,it is a welcome trend but there is a need to keep a watch. The decline may have started but there is a need to keep a watch for at least this year. We still do not know how the virus will behave once the weather changes, said Dr V M Katoch,DG,Indian Council of Medical Research. Doctors say summer is playing a crucial role in the change in the trend. The change again may be seen in September. We have two peaks of influenza-like illness,once in monsoons and during winters. The concern would now be about September. The change in temperature has a lot to do with the significant downfall in the number of victims of the novel virus, said Dr Randeep Guleria,Professor of Medicine at AIIMS. Gradually H1N1 will become seasonal flu virus. As of now India has reported a total of 30,088 cases of H1N1 virus with 1,435 deaths. Though the numbers have started dropping,the states have been asked to keep an eye on signs of a possible new wave. The trend of the pandemic is that it shows up and down till 60-70 per cent of the population gets exposed to the virus. The virus may have gone down,but it may go up again, added Dr Katoch. The World Health Organisation also said low levels of the swine flu infections were recorded in the western region of the country. It said 90 per cent of the fatalities during flu epidemics were old or weak,with underlying conditions that can aggravate.
