Opinion Handle with care

The three most powerful forces in the modern world are democracy,religion,and nationalism. In 1989 in Eastern Europe,all three were arrayed against the ruling regimes. Citizens hated their governments because they deprived people of liberty and political participation. Believers despised communist leaders because they were atheistic,banning religion in countries where faith was deeply cherished. And people rejected their regimes because they were seen as having been imposed from the outside by a much disliked imperial power,the Soviet Union.

The situation in Iran is more complex. Democracy clearly works against this repressive regime. The forces of religion,however,are not so easily aligned against it. Many,possibly most,Iranians appear to be fed up with theocracy. But that does not mean they are fed up with religion. It does appear that the more openly devout Iranians — the poor,the rural — voted for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

There is one way religion could be used against Iran’s leaders,but it would involve an unlikely scenario: were Iraq-based Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to issue a fatwa condemning Tehran in any way,it would be a seismic event,probably resulting in the regime’s collapse. Remember,Sistani is Iranian,probably more revered in the entire Shia world than any other ayatollah. His own view is that clerics should not be involved in politics,which is why he has steered clear of any such role in Iraq. But he is unlikely to publicly criticise the Iranian regime. (He did,however,refuse to see Ahmadinejad when the latter visited Iraq in March 2008.)

Nationalism is the most complex of these three forces. Over most of its history,the Iranian regime has exploited nationalist sentiment. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power by battling the shah,who was widely seen as an American puppet. Soon after the revolution,Iraq attacked Iran,and the mullahs wrapped themselves in the flag again. The United States supported Iraq in that war,ignoring Saddam Hussein’s use of chemical weapons against Iranians — something Iranians have never forgotten. Over the past eight years,the Bush administration’s veiled threats to attack Iran allowed the mullahs to drum up support. (Every Iranian dissident,from Akbar Ganji to Shirin Ebadi,has noted that talk of airstrikes on Iran strengthened the regime.) And it is worth remembering that the United States still funds guerrilla outfits and opposition groups that are trying to topple the Islamic Republic. Most of these are tiny groups with no chance of success,funded largely to appease right-wing congressmen. But the Tehran government is able to portray this as an ongoing anti—Iranian campaign.

In this context,President Obama is quite right to tread cautiously,extend his moral support to Iranian protesters,but not get politically involved. The United States has always underestimated the raw power of nationalism across the world. But look at what is happening in Iraq right now,where Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki boasts that America’s troop withdrawals are a “a heroic repulsion of the foreign occupiers.” Of course Maliki would not be in office but for those occupying forces,who protect his government to this day. But he is a canny politician and knows what will appeal to the Iraqi people.

Newsweek