Even before the game began, the Opposition parties in Haryana (BJP, INLD, HJC and BSP) began to realise that the race for 90 seats in the Haryana Assembly is almost closed. So, the counting on October 22 is not a fight for government formation, but a test of survival and Opposition leadership.

The Congress is expected to repeat the success of Election 2005, amid a disarrayed and divided opposition. The party is riding high on Hooda’s popularity and his government’s performance. The National Election Study (NES) 2009 conducted by Lokniti, CSDS reveals that Hooda was rated by 32 per cent of respondents as the top choice for CM’s post and Chautala remained runner up with just 14 per cent approval. More than 60 per cent expressed satisfaction with the Hooda government’s performance. Even a majority of NDA voters were satisfied with the state government’s performance. The Congress is seen as a party capable of improving law and order situation by 41 per cent respondents whereas 31 per cent expressed no opinion. And if the Lok Sabha results were any referendum on the government’s performance, the Congress swept the state, defying conventional wisdom that the party tends to give way when up against a strong alliance. The INLD and its ally BJP barely managed a lead in seven assembly segments each, whereas the Congress led in fifty-nine. The BSP and Bhajan Lal’s HJC were ahead in eight and nine assembly segments respectively in May 2009.

However the twist in the story is in the long view — traditional caste arithmetic has gone awry and political parties in Haryana are desperately seeking new equations. The marginalisation of Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party has contributed a great deal towards the current shift, as a section of the Jat community (around 28 per cent of the population), which so far backed the HVP, found itself at the crossroads. Hooda’s timely effort to emerge as a focal point of this peasant community has enhanced the Congress share among Jats by 17 per cent since the 2005 election.

... contd.