A century later computers hit the markets. This was a comparably revolutionary breakthrough. The economic benefits were self-evident. Yet it was years before computers occupied the interstices of the economy — a puzzle that provoked Prof. Robert Solow to remark “computers are everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” In this case the reasons were institutional and corporate inertia and the instinctive reluctance of humans to alter ingrained habits.

I have outlined these two experiences to highlight three trends. First the lag between technological breakthroughs and its material impact. Second, the inherent physical and psychological (human) limits to the quick and widespread application of new ideas and products and third, the need for a multidimensional and coordinated approach (i.e. there are no silver bullets). Let me elaborate this last point further through the lens of energy scarcity and environmental protection.

We all know that global warming is fast reaching a tipping point and that the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) must be quickly arrested. Many governments and companies are expending a great deal of R&D effort and money to commercialise renewable energy (solar, wind, bio, nuclear). Obama has for instance announced a massive package of financial incentives to promote clean energy. These efforts will no doubt pay off sooner rather than later. There will be a technological breakthrough that will sharply reduce the costs of solar and wind energy; biofuels from cellulosic material rather than the food chain will be commercially available; and replacements for petrol and diesel as a transportation fuel will be developed. The question is whether the associated supply and distribution infrastructure required to bring these new sources of energy from the production point to the householder will be created within the same period; whether vehicles will be redesigned and produced in mass numbers to use the replacement transportation fuels; and whether people will alter their way of life to accept and adapt to a new energy system. Clearly if these parallel developments do not take place viz smart grids are not built; hybrids or flexifuel vehicles are not produced in significant numbers; behaviours do not change — then the new energy technologies will be everywhere but in the real economy.

... contd.