Who are the winners and losers in the recent elections in Jammu & Kashmir? The headlines focus on the BJP’s unexpected success in Jammu and the possibility of a National Conference-Congress coalition government. Most election post-mortems have proceeded on the basis of the seats that each party has won, assuming modest gains for the PDP, modest losses for Congress, no change for the National Conference, and a milestone victory for the BJP. While the seat shares tell part of the story, the actual vote shares reveal a far more complex reality.

The National Conference has emerged from these elections as the largest party in the assembly, while Congress now plays the role of king-maker. Yet, based on vote shares, these are precisely the parties that lost ground in 2008. Together, the two parties lost more than 10 per cent of the vote from 2002 to 2008 — a drop of about 5 per cent for the National Conference (from 28 per cent to 23 per cent) and more than 6 per cent for Congress (from 24 per cent to under 18 per cent). In spite of these losses, both parties appear set to take power in the state. But they may well be losing the proverbial war for state-level political dominance. In past elections, Congress and the National Conference together won well over 50 per cent of the vote, and as much as 75 per cent in 1983. In the recent election, they could barely muster 40 per cent. These elections may well mark the redefinition of party competition in Jammu & Kashmir as across the state, Congress and the National Conference have lost much of their prior advantage over their competitors in their respective strongholds and no longer constitute each other’s primary electoral threats.

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