In 2002, in the districts comprising Kashmir, with 36 per cent of the vote to the PDP’s 25 per cent and Congress’ 15 per cent, the National Conference could plausibly hope to keep both its opponents at bay and remain Kashmir’s dominant party. Meanwhile, Congress enjoyed a similarly comfortable position in Jammu’s Hindu-dominated districts with 29 per cent of the vote to the 14 per cent won by both the National Conference and BJP. Finally, in Jammu’s Muslim-majority districts of Doda, Poonch, and Rajouri, Congress and the National Conference were neck and neck.

With the recently concluded election, a new dynamic has emerged. The two traditionally dominant parties in the state are now locked in a dead heat in their respective strongholds, but not with each other. The National Conference and PDP in Kashmir won nearly identical vote shares, while the BJP and Congress were just as evenly matched in Hindu-majority Jammu. The National Conference now has far more to worry about from the “soft separatist” PDP than from Congress, while the Hindu-centric BJP now poses a greater threat to Congress’ current position. Although the National Conference’s loss of 8 per cent of the vote in Kashmir and a 7 per cent decline for Congress in Jammu may seem relatively small, losses like these can prove highly consequential. Seven or eight percent of the vote can mean the difference between a legislative majority and a hung verdict. Previously, the National Conference and Congress were well ahead of their rivals in their respective strongholds. Today, those rivals have pulled even and are approaching the point in some districts where now they can sweep elections. For instance, the PDP dominated (undivided) Pulwama district, winning all six seats and more than 30 per cent of the vote, while the National Conference’s vote share trailed by more than 15 per cent.

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