However, the forecast is not necessarily all smooth-sailing for the PDP and BJP even if they continue to gain ground at the expense of their main rivals. Both the PDP and BJP should have much to fear from the incipient rapprochement between Congress and the National Conference. A long-standing NC-Congress alliance could potentially keep both parties out of power for the foreseeable future. Ironically, National Conference weakness in Jammu’s Hindu-dominated districts and Congress’ increasing impotence in Kashmir may enable the two parties to come together in a stable alliance without stepping on each others’ toes. But a durable alliance between the NC and Congress would entail tricky seat-sharing negotiations in the Poonch-Rajouri belt and the erstwhile Doda district, where both parties vie for dominance. It would also require that Congress accede to playing junior partner to the National Conference in state government. Can a long-term alliance of this kind succeed? We can only wait and watch.  

The writer is a Cambridge-based political scientist