But the major challenge that Modi faces in the run-up to the polls is from the Koli and Patidar dissidents. Kolis, a major OBC group, constituting nearly 24 per cent of the population, are by and large small and marginal farmers and landless labourers. They have traditionally been Congress voters as they perceived it to be a party for the poor. However, their preference vacillated between Congress and BJP in the 1990s.

The majority of the Kolis voted for the BJP in the 1995-96 polls, thanks to their mobilisation by Shankarsinh Vaghela. They shifted to the Congress when Vaghela joined the Congress. However in the post-carnage 2002 elections, they voted for the BJP. But within no time, in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections 55 per cent of the Koli vote went back to the Congress. This pro-Congress trend is likely to speed up in the coming months.

The Patidars, nearly 13 per cent of the electorate, dominate rural Gujarat. They have been anti-Congress since the mid-1970s with the ouster of Chimanbhai Patel from the Congress. They have been strong supporters of the BJP since the early 1990s. For the first time recently, sections of this community have changed their party preference. According to the CSDS survey, BJP Patidar voter declined from 79 per cent in the 2002 assembly polls to 67 per cent in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. With the ouster of Keshubhai as chief minister, a section of the community nurses a hurt. The suspension of five Patidar leaders from the party recently has added fuel to the fire. On the other hand, their antagonism vis a vis the Congress has been weakened as land reform is no longer on the Congress agenda. Moreover, they are unhappy with the Modi government’s policy on agriculture.

... contd.