The upcoming assembly election in Karnataka will bring answers to several consequential questions. Having seen four chief ministers come and go in as many years, how will the electorate respond to the political turbulence it has recently witnessed? In other words, will Karnataka see the re-assertion of a two-party system or will the third force continue to cast its shadow over the verdict and possibly the formation of the new government? Then, will the political distinctiveness of the regions within the state permit a clear mandate to emerge across the state? And, can the new delimitation of constituencies make a dramatic difference?

Many would argue that the election in May will be a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. But it would be politically naive to write off the Janata Dal (S) so early in the race. Throughout the campaign, it is safe to predict that Congress and BJP leaders will spend sleepless nights worrying about how much the JD(S) may eat into their existing and potential vote/seat share. What will be equally worrisome to them, moreover, is the extent to which the JD(S) will play the spoiler by splitting their vote in specific constituencies.

The electoral picture appears less hazy when we zero in on the specific regions within the state. Traditionally the state has been divided into five regions: one, the Mumbai-Karnataka region which covers the area that was earlier part of the Bombay presidency; two, the Hyderabad-Karnataka region which includes areas that were part of the erstwhile Nizam territory; three, the Central Karnataka region which includes the hilly Malnad region and the upper parts of the Old Mysore princely state; four, the Coastal Karnataka region that covers the regions hugging the coastline and five, the southern part of the Old Mysore region. Some would further divide the last region into two sub-regions — Bangalore and South Karnataka.

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