Opinion How Modi undoes the political math

The advent of Narendra Modi has had exactly this kind of disruptive effect. This has nothing to do with what Modi says,but everything to do with what he has come to represent. If anything,the BJP’s face for 2014 has sought to project himself on a platform of decisive governance. But with the impact it might have on the electorate still a distance away,the question is what his mere presence is doing to the political space now.

Until a few months ago,when the DMK pulled out of the UPA,the stage was set for another dramatic interplay of contesting narratives,expectedly shriller,full of guile and vigorous competitiveness. The Congress’s shrinking list of allies and partners had an underlying message that the 2014 elections was not going to be about preset alliances. Each party was out there with the basic motive to maximise numbers on its own,regardless of what benefit this or that alliance might bring.

On the surface,one can argue that not much has changed. But when seen through the prism of perception,a lot seems to have changed and could,in fact,redefine the contours along which the elections will be fought. In many ways,the race to predict 2014 and its combinations thereafter has overshadowed the build-up to the elections.

Arguably,as far as perception goes,Modi has emerged as among the most divisive figures in India’s contemporary political history. This is not a comment on whether he is actually all that,but the fact remains that this is the perception of him,and hence his politics.

Divisive is what divisive does and by that logic,the impact he is having,without having said that much,on the political scene,is a potential game-changer. The breaking up of the alliance in Bihar was just a symptom. The real issue is that Modi’s mere elevation within his party has disrupted Nitish Kumar’s carefully constructed voter matrix in Bihar,one that seemed impregnable.

It is this effect,based on Modi’s anti-minority perception,that is making regional players cede their middle ground and take extreme positions to emphasise the divide. But in doing so,they are taking positions similar to their traditional rivals. The fact is that Kumar will increasingly sound similar to archrival Lalu Prasad in his attempt at distancing himself from the BJP. The same will be the case between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati,as every other divide will collapse in the larger argument of who is more secular and,therefore,the true claimant to the Muslim vote. The Congress and the JD(S) will end up in a similar competition of sorts in Karnataka,and even though the BJP and Modi may have little say in West Bengal,the Left is bound to draw Mamata Banerjee into a similar competition in the parliamentary polls. Let’s not forget that the subtext of the Trinamool Congress’s victory in the Howrah by-election was that the BJP withdrew its candidate to the benefit of the TMC. The Left is surely going to exploit this further,turning it again into a contest of who is the greater secularist.

Even in a state like Maharashtra,where there was every chance that traditional alliances may come under pressure and the field might open up to a broader contest,Modi’s emergence has reinforced the secular line. The choice for,say,a party like the NCP to move away from the Congress has become tougher,given the political premium attached to being secular.

In numerical terms,the state of play in over 200 seats across UP,Bihar,West Bengal,Karnataka,Maharashtra and to some extent,Jharkhand,is about actors rushing to occupy the extreme opposite space of what Modi represents. And in over 100 seats,where the Congress and the BJP are in direct contest,the former is also resorting to a similar strategy,ceding the centrist space. This gravitation away from the middle ground,in many ways,is bound to produce a counter-response from the BJP. Herein lies the magic of divisive politics — upsetting settled equations,which eventually forces the reorganisation of the political space. That,in effect,provides Modi and the BJP their best shot at maximising numbers.

Here is where Modi’s well crafted campaign around strong and decisive governance will hope to find resonance amongst the large set of voters,who may feel left out or even insecure due to the rush within their patron parties to capture the minority sentiment. This chunk can be disparate and from across caste and religious groups,but in an equal quest for political security. Hence the chance of a new leader.

How the BJP moves to capture this middle ground and the way in which the Congress reconciles its secular opposition to provide a riposte in the coming months will,in many ways,provide the new markers that will shape the battlefield for 2014.

pranab.samanta@expressindia.com