The Karnataka assembly election results categorically indicate that the electoral battle was very intense with several of the candidates winning their seats with wafer thin margins. How best can one explain the rationale of the Karnataka verdict? The devil is clearly in the detail.

In this election, across the state, the results indicate that the BJP has assumed the role that the Congress played in the 1960s and ‘70s. In many constituencies, the division of the Opposition vote (Congress and Janata Dal) led to a BJP victory. During the campaign, the BJP strategically positioned itself as a rival of both the Congress and Janata Dal, converting many of the contests into a BJP vs non-BJP battle. This paid rich dividends to the party and contributed significantly to victories in many a constituency.

The BJP was able to consolidate its position by improving its performance (over 2004) in two critical regions — the Old Mysore and Hyderabad Karnatak regions. In 2004 it had done commendably well in the Coastal Karnatak, Central Karnatak and Mumbai-Karnatak regions. This time around it has improved its position in the other two regions also.

In Old Mysore, the new delimitation of constituencies came to its rescue. The additional seats in Bangalore city worked to the BJP’s advantage as it was able to consolidate its position in the metropolis. It was also able to benefit from the increased number of seats in other urban areas in the region — especially the district headquarters. In the Hyderabad-Karnatak region, its impressive performance could be linked to two factors. The BSP could have contributing to splitting the Dalit vote in the region on the one hand and the Muslim vote was divided between the Congress and JD(S). With the solid backing of the dominant Lingayat caste, the BJP was able to make deep inroads in the region.

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