Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group are stressing the strategic and collaborative benefits of their planned equity tie-up, but if history is a guide, Japan's largest bank could end up with a decent investment and little else.
Japan Inc is on an acquisition hot streak to expand its global reach, with banks -- unburdened by subprime losses and faced with stagnating growth at home -- among the buyers.
On Monday, Mitsubishi UFJ said it will take a 10-20 per cent stake in Morgan Stanley, and will pay as much as $8.5 billion.
The details of the deal are still being hammered out, meaning it may take some time before investors see evidence of how far the alliance will go in terms of cooperation.
"I think it will more likely be an investment," said Kristine Li, banking analyst at KBC Securities in Tokyo.
"Putting in the capital, Mitsubishi can get higher ROE (return on equity) to compensate for the low growth of their domestic business."
Their deal could very well form a true global franchise, sharing people and products from Tokyo to Times Square.
But history is not on their side.
When the forerunner of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group invested $500 million into Goldman Sachs in 1986, the idea was to form a global alliance. That never really happened.
The Japanese bank benefitted financially from its Goldman deal, but "not necessarily in terms of strategic initiative," John Ehara, a partner at Tokyo-based Unison Capital, said at a Hong Kong conference panel on Wednesday.
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