But in such dire circumstances all consumers, whether or not they ‘owned’ oil, would find it difficult to secure the commodity. Only those with access to strategic stocks would be able to meet their requirements. The point is that ownership does not guarantee supply security. This does not mean that ‘energy security’ is a weak argument for acquisition. It simply means that it should not be the only argument. It must be supported by economics. Hence my presumption that ONGC expects the price of oil to rise.

Anyway to answer the question, I believe our decision makers must now look beyond quantitative forecasting models. They should develop tools that will help them project price paths under differing socio-economic, political and technical contexts. Scenario planning offers such a tool.

Scenarios are not forecasts but descriptions of alternative worlds. They are developed through a methodology that uses underlying global trends to create and describe possible alternative futures. For example, we see today three broad and somewhat divergent global trends. There is the force of globalization, liberalization and technology. The world is connected; IT has wrought a revolution in communication; barriers to trade and capital flows have been lowered.

We are also witnessing the resurgence of state authority. This is partly to counter the sense of insecurity engendered by terrorism and partly to regulate markets. Enron — the byword for corporate impropriety — triggered the latter. There is also evidence that individuals, social organizations and indeed governments are bonding along ascriptive and narrowly defined national, linguistic, ethnic and/or religious lines. Examples are the concept of ‘Asian values’; the idea of Latin American solidarity and the bond of Islam.

... contd.