Hu’s predecessor Jiang Zemin had promoted the theory of “Three Represents”, which called on the Chinese Communist Party to go beyond its commitment to the working class and represent the advanced forces of production, advanced political culture and the interests of the majority of Chinese people. If Jiang’s “Three Represents” emphasised economic modernisation and ideological accommodation, Hu’s “harmonious society” focuses on coping with the social and political consequences of rapid change and addressing the needs of those left behind by reforms.

Although much international analysis has been devoted to Hu’s thesis on a “harmonious society” which seeks to deal with the many political tensions China faces from uneven economic growth and growing social inequality, there has been less interest in Hu’s idea of a “harmonious world”.

In his only public speech in New Delhi, Hu is expected to give a definitive articulation of his quest for a “harmonious world”. With the address to the joint session of the Parliament not materialising, Wednesday’s speech will be at the Vigyan Bhawan in the capital.

Hu’s theory on “harmonious world” revolves around four broad themes — effective multilateralism among states, development of a collective security mechanism, prosperity for all through common development, and tolerance and dialogue among diverse civilisations.

Indian response

Since the dominant tradition of Indian foreign policy loved debating how the world “ought” to be governed rather than how it actually “is”, New Delhi will have little to quibble with Hu’s “harmonious world”. The ideas that permeate Hu’s world view -democratisation of international relations and non-intervention in the internal affairs of nations - have also been part of Indian foreign policy articulation.

There is a big difference though. For Indians, principles are an end in themselves. For the Chinese, theories are meant to achieve practical outcomes. Hu’s political purpose in coining the slogan of a “harmonious world” is to counter the perception that a rising China is a threat to the world. In that sense the theory on building a “harmonious world” is an adjunct to Beijing’s proposition that China’s rise, in contrast to the emergence of new great powers in the past, will not be destabilsing but peaceful. China today is conscious of its power potential and its emerging capabilities to alter the regional and international system. It is responding to the incipient resistance to its rise and finding ways to pre-empt it. India is a long way from strategising about its own future in the global order and finding an ideological wrapper for it.

Hu in Pakistan

As Hu heads off to Agra and Mumbai on Wednesday and then to Pakistan, the focus now shifts to the Chinese President’s agenda in Islamabad. In contrast to the many anxieties in New Delhi that surrounded Hu’s visit to India, in Pakistan it will simply be a celebration of a bilateral relationship that has often been called “deeper than oceans and higher than mountains”.

Among the agreements to be signed by Hu in Pakistan include a free trade treaty, modernisation of transport corridors between Xinjiang and Pakistan occupied Kashmir and the Northern Areas, and the expansion of Chinese presence in the sensitive Gwadar port. There are reports that China will announce new projects in Gwadar to build an airport, oil refinery, and an oil pipeline.

As it monitors what promises to be an important turning point in Sino-Pak relations, Indian analysis will be tempted to focus on its traditional concerns about the time tested strategic partnership between Islamabad and Beijing. New Delhi instead should focus on a new challenge that confronts it. Hu’s visit to Pakistan — with its focus on free trade and permeable borders — highlights one of the consequences of the rise of China. If India does not get its neighbourhood act together, China will emerge as the principal economic partner of most South Asian nations.

Nuclear triangle

Having announced his intent to initiate civilian nuclear cooperation with India, is Hu now free to go ahead with the planned sale of additional power reactors to Pakistan? Hu will find it hard to resist the entreaties from a trusted ally in the wake of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the spokeswoman of the Pakistan Foreign Office, Tasnim Aslam, dismissed as “speculative” the reports on a new nuclear agreement between the two nations during Hu’s visit.

The denial is most likely aimed at the word “new” rather than the deal on reactors itself. The simple fact is that the only way China can sell nuclear reactors to Pakistan is by claiming that the sale is under an “old” agreement that predates Chinese commitment to global non-proliferation norms.